Will the sky be clear over Vogar on 2 August 2027?
In Vogar the eclipse is NOT total. The Moon covers 5.9 % of the Sun at 08:58, but it never gets dark here.
How the ensemble scenarios split for 2 August
— of the scenarios give usable sky
The European model (ECMWF) forecast for the morning of 2 August starts being published on the evening of 27 July, six days before: no earlier model run reaches that hour.
The Sun will be 25° up — high enough that cloud overhead does resemble what blocks it.
Where this falls
Each dot is a place with its own reading. The colour is its scenarios.
Hour by hour colour = low cloud
The bar is CLEAR SKY: the fuller, the better.
Where the Sun will be, and why that changes what can block it
In Vogar the Sun will be 25° above the horizon — reasonably high. Here the overhead cloud really does resemble what crosses in front of the Sun, so the low-Sun warning does not apply.
What time the model looks at, and what time the eclipse is here
Nearby, and why they read the same
Vogar shares its model area with these 1: at this range the ensemble cannot tell them apart, so they all come out with very similar numbers.
How to read this, and where it comes from
This is how a model’s scenarios split, not a forecast. It is rebuilt every two hours.