Will the sky be clear over Qassiarsuk on 2 August 2027?
In Qassiarsuk the eclipse is NOT total. The Moon covers 4.9 % of the Sun at 07:52, but it never gets dark here.
How the ensemble scenarios split for 2 August
— of the scenarios give usable sky
The European model (ECMWF) forecast for the morning of 2 August starts being published on the evening of 27 July, six days before: no earlier model run reaches that hour.
The model measures cloud overhead; the Sun will be 13.6° up, almost flat.
Where this falls
Each dot is a place with its own reading. The colour is its scenarios.
Hour by hour colour = low cloud
The bar is CLEAR SKY: the fuller, the better.
Where the Sun will be, and why that changes what can block it
In Qassiarsuk the Sun will be 13.6° above the horizon. The model measures cloud in the vertical, and with the Sun this low what can block it is the cloud in the direction of the Sun, not the cloud above you.
What time the model looks at, and what time the eclipse is here
Nearby, and why they read the same
Qassiarsuk shares its model area with these 8: at this range the ensemble cannot tell them apart, so they all come out with very similar numbers.
How to read this, and where it comes from
This is how a model’s scenarios split, not a forecast. It is rebuilt every two hours.